Editor’s note✏️: This weekend we will put out our midterm prediction and analysis memo for “Things I Tell My Friends.” It will be what I am telling my friends about the election.

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It’s not that hard‼️: All next week people will tell you takeaways from the election, etc.

As far as I can tell, regardless of what happens, there is really one BIG takeaway.
- Politics is not hard
- It’s about making people’s lives better
- Many believed Trump would do that
- They voted for him
- He and the rich have much better lives
- They do not.
- They are pissed….
It’s really that simple.
- It applies if there is a massive blue wave or if Republicans seek it out.
Prediction👀: Few, if any, will learn that lesson — those that do, especially Republicans, will see massive dividends.
- Be careful⚠️: If Republicans retain the Senate, it will be viewed as another mandate for MAGA — it’s not
- If Democrats ride a record wave across Iowa, Kansas and Texas, they will say it’s a complete rejection of MAGA — it’s not.
  - Unforced error 🤦: JD Vance swung and missed when a young woman asked about this very issue in a town hall –
    - First he cracked a joke.
    - Then tried to say it’s his fault
    - Then provided platitudes

Hat tip🧢: Steve Cortes rang this alarm bell a year ago — fellow Republicans got mad at him when they should have listened.

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4 Days📅: On the Friday before election night, the Washington Post, among others, is hedging its polls significantly.

📰The Washington Post headlines, “We polled Kansas. Democrats wanted to talk. Republicans, not so much,” writing:
- “After more than 85,000 phone calls and nearly 50,000 text messages, a potential problem emerged. Democrats were far more enthusiastic about taking the poll than Republicans were”
It’s clear Republicans have a lot of data to tell us why the polls are wrong —and history has also shown that they’ve been wrong in the past.
- Look back🔙: Two years ago, polls had Kamala Harris winning the White House and states like Iowa and Michigan.
- What happened‼️: Trump won Iowa by over 13 points and all the battleground states
Tonight📺: We won’t be able to tell you whether the polls are right or wrong, but we can tell you what will make them right or wrong — Liberty Vittert Capito and Andy Crosby join me.
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Candy Corn alert🚨: I will never forgive my executive producer for sharing this story in The Atlantic

Earth to Elon🗣️

🚀Elon Musk often wears a shirt that says “Occupy Mars” — he might as well be on Mars right now, considering how out of touch he is.

💰The richest man in the world now says money is pointless.

Elon Musk: “Saving money for the distant future is pointless with the advent of super intelligent abundance”
- This is a guy who’s spending $445 million to get Republicans elected so he doesn’t get a wealth tax
- He’s not doing Republicans any favors here
He also said democracy might end if Democrats win — sounds a lot like Democrats in 2024.

🙏Can we get the old Elon back, please?

Not Meeting the Moment‼️

👀I’ve told you this before — watch what politicians DO, not what they say.

Democrats claim to be the party for “protecting Democracy” and going to “hold Trump and his family accountable” —
Yet all are silent on Alaska’s Democratic Senate candidate pulling one of the dirtiest, most corrupt tricks you can
- What I’m thinking💭: How can you say we’re going to hold Trump accountable when you can’t call out your own party?
It’s not just Alaska they are silent on; look at the Ilhan Omar investigation
- No Democrat is coming out talking about Omar’s investigation, which appears on its face to be immigration fraud.
- Even The New York Times acknowledges that the Obama administration found evidence that she married her brother.
Nancy Pelosi is now a lone profile in courage to call Abdul El-Sayed troubling.
- Look what Democrats do to a fellow (Jewish) Democrat who dares not jump on the El-Sayed train

Flipside 🔄: Look at the difference with the Vivek Ramaswamy ad — Republicans quickly denounced it after it was posted.

“Vivek Ramaswamy discontinues attack ad that prompted wave of revulsion”

Spare me: It’s not hard — once you call balls and strikes on your own people, you will get a lot more credibility.

Tonight📺: Roma Daravi, Saeed Ibrahim and Meghan Hays

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What the Election Is About ‼️