Editor’s note✏️: This weekend we will put out our midterm prediction and analysis memo for “Things I Tell My Friends.” It will be what I am telling my friends about the election.
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It’s not that hard‼️: All next week people will tell you takeaways from the election, etc.
As far as I can tell, regardless of what happens, there is really one BIG takeaway.
Politics is not hard
It’s about making people’s lives better
Many believed Trump would do that
They voted for him
He and the rich have much better lives
They do not.
They are pissed….
It’s really that simple.
It applies if there is a massive blue wave or if Republicans seek it out.
Prediction👀: Few, if any, will learn that lesson — those that do, especially Republicans, will see massive dividends.
Be careful⚠️: If Republicans retain the Senate, it will be viewed as another mandate for MAGA — it’s not
If Democrats ride a record wave across Iowa, Kansas and Texas, they will say it’s a complete rejection of MAGA — it’s not.
Unforced error 🤦: JD Vance swung and missed when a young woman asked about this very issue in a town hall –
First he cracked a joke.
Then tried to say it’s his fault
Then provided platitudes
Hat tip🧢: Steve Cortes rang this alarm bell a year ago — fellow Republicans got mad at him when they should have listened.
Tell the world they need to read War Notes! Restack it! 🔄
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4 Days📅: On the Friday before election night, the Washington Post, among others, is hedging its polls significantly.
📰The Washington Post headlines, “We polled Kansas. Democrats wanted to talk. Republicans, not so much,” writing:
“After more than 85,000 phone calls and nearly 50,000 text messages, a potential problem emerged. Democrats were far more enthusiastic about taking the poll than Republicans were”
It’s clear Republicans have a lot of data to tell us why the polls are wrong —and history has also shown that they’ve been wrong in the past.
Look back🔙: Two years ago, polls had Kamala Harris winning the White House and states like Iowa and Michigan.
What happened‼️: Trump won Iowa by over 13 points and all the battleground states
Tonight📺: We won’t be able to tell you whether the polls are right or wrong, but we can tell you what will make them right or wrong — Liberty Vittert Capito and Andy Crosby join me.
Candy Corn alert🚨: I will never forgive my executive producer for sharing this story in The Atlantic
“Just Noting That Your Candy Corn Is Made of Bug Secretions”
Sorry!
It is also my favorite candy — God bless the bugs!
Earth to Elon🗣️
🚀Elon Musk often wears a shirt that says “Occupy Mars” — he might as well be on Mars right now, considering how out of touch he is.
💰The richest man in the world now says money is pointless.
Elon Musk: “Saving money for the distant future is pointless with the advent of super intelligent abundance”
This is a guy who’s spending $445 million to get Republicans elected so he doesn’t get a wealth tax
He’s not doing Republicans any favors here
He also said democracy might end if Democrats win — sounds a lot like Democrats in 2024.
🙏Can we get the old Elon back, please?
Not Meeting the Moment‼️
👀I’ve told you this before — watch what politicians DO, not what they say.
Democrats claim to be the party for “protecting Democracy” and going to “hold Trump and his family accountable” —
Yet all are silent on Alaska’s Democratic Senate candidate pulling one of the dirtiest, most corrupt tricks you can
What I’m thinking💭: How can you say we’re going to hold Trump accountable when you can’t call out your own party?
It’s not just Alaska they are silent on; look at the Ilhan Omar investigation
No Democrat is coming out talking about Omar’s investigation, which appears on its face to be immigration fraud.
Even The New York Times acknowledges that the Obama administration found evidence that she married her brother.
Nancy Pelosi is now a lone profile in courage to call Abdul El-Sayed troubling.
Look what Democrats do to a fellow (Jewish) Democrat who dares not jump on the El-Sayed train
Flipside 🔄: Look at the difference with the Vivek Ramaswamy ad — Republicans quickly denounced it after it was posted.
Spare me: It’s not hard — once you call balls and strikes on your own people, you will get a lot more credibility.
Tonight📺: Roma Daravi, Saeed Ibrahim and Meghan Hays
Always good when your sister is a guest.
Your sister as a guest goes a long way toward exceptional panelist quality
Awesome!