The Bear of Bad News 🚨
Breathless headlines reporting Trump's woes are accurate but miss what matters
Apologies🙏: A technical snafu meant Friday’s “War Notes” went out yesterday — we apologize.
‼️We are here the rest of the week and then off on Monday.
😁Some exciting things are coming to “War Notes,” with more opportunities for us to engage on the issues that matter most.
Travel blog✈️: Rachel and I spent the weekend in California, or as my father-in-law said, “Returning to the scene of the crime,” aka our wedding.
🤔It was magical — in every way — but I couldn’t help think about the state with so much to offer that’s been objectively ruined
🧑🌾Farmers who can’t grow crops because of Governor Gavin Newsom’s laws about sending millions of gallons of water into the Pacific Ocean
💰Punitive taxes against the very people who create the engine of economic growth
‼️Toxic empathy for criminals, the homeless, drug users and the disadvantaged that keeps spending more and more money to achieve worse outcomes.
🔥Incompetence, corruption and environmental policies that lead to massive disasters like the Palisades Fire
How is that working out👀: For all of the talk about a socialist takeover in the Democratic Party — it’s already happened in California.
Snapback‼️: Californians have had enough
🧹San Francisco’s new mayor, Daniel Lurie, cleaned the city up
😬Karen Bass thought she might lose to a democratic socialist; now, she might lose to a reality TV star promising common sense
🐘The leading candidate in California’s governor race is a Republican
👀North in Oregon, polls show they might elect a Republican governor
🙏As someone who loves America, I call this hope.
👀Maybe it’s not too late for my beloved city of Chicago.
Summer Logic‼️
📺The American media seems united in painting a very bleak picture for Donald Trump.
🤷They aren’t wrong — midterms wait for no one
⛽Gas prices are at all-time highs
🐄Same with beef prices
💰Everything will get more expensive
❗He’s trapped in Iran
🤦He committed political malpractice by endorsing a Senate candidate in Texas who might lose to satiate his own ego
📈Democrats will win the House
📺I could go on — or you could just watch a few minutes of MS NOW “Morning Joe” tomorrow.
Blind spot👀: Conventional wisdom on Trump misses the most basic lesson every kid learns at summer camp
🏃You don’t have to outrun the bear — you just have to outrun your buddy.
🤷The same is true for Trump, both domestically and internationally.
Best buddies🤝: After meeting with Trump, President Xi of China went to Russia to meet with Putin
📰Headlines indicate they had a great meeting
🤷Everything that glitters is not gold — both Xi and Putin face their own serious issues
‼️For Xi:
China’s economy faced massive problems before the war with Iran
The U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran exposed its military hardware as junk
The oil price hike hurts them far more than the United States
He didn’t get any meaningful concessions from Trump during their visit
‼️For Putin:
He won’t leave his own country amid coup fears
The war in Ukraine keeps getting worse
His military couldn’t even bring modern hardware to their Victory Day parade
The Russian economy is on life support
Domestic🏠: Domestically, Trump faces the same dynamic — things are bad.
‼️But Democrats face their own very serious issues
The move to socialism
The demand for reparations
Rep Pressley, D-Mass.: “Every bit of prosperity you all enjoy was built on our Black backs … So we are long overdue for reparations”
The antisemitic base creating problems every day — a congressional candidate in Texas suggested concentration camps for Zionists
The focus on fighting Trump
Watch tonight📺: Dmitri Alperovitch and Gordon Chang on how Trump can exploit Xi and Putin’s fatal weaknesses.
Everything vs. the Only Thing‼️
👀Never before has there been this much pressure for two Supreme Court justices to step down — Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito
⏩With Republicans potentially losing the Senate and Trump’s unpopularity, the president’s window to reshape the Supreme Court is closing fast.
🚨Trump needs Thomas and Alito to resign while he still has the votes to replace them.
But here’s the problem⚠️: Trump irritating Republicans is going to make it harder than ever to get someone new through
It’s not impossible but definitely going to be harder.
🗣️We first told you about this months ago — the pressure continues to grow as does the justices’ intransigence.
Watch tonight📺: Ian Samuel and Chris Cillizza on how to get someone to give up a seat for life
The Castro Regime‼️
⚠️Seems like Cuba’s days are numbered.
The Trump administration today indicted former Cuban President Raul Castro for his role in the 1996 shootdown of the Brothers to the Rescue aircraft, which killed four people.
Look back🔙: Brothers to the Rescue was a nonprofit in Miami that assisted and rescued Cuban refugees trying to escape the Cuban regime
🤦President Trump thinks taking down the Castro brothers is going to be a cake walk
Reporter: “Should we expect any escalation here, or should they expect anything?”
Trump: “No. There won’t be escalation. I don’t think there needs to be. Look, the place is falling apart. It’s a mess, and they’ve sort of lost control. Cuba is a failing nation. They have no oil. We’re there to help. We’re freeing up Cuba.”
What I’m thinking💭: Anyone who thinks this isn’t going to turn into another Venezuela hasn’t been paying attention.
⚠️That said, this time Cuba will be far more ready than Venezuela ever was.
Life in Cuba‼️: The country is on the brink of collapse
They have the longest-running dictatorship in the Americas — it’s a one-party communist state
Restricts basic civil liberties
Suppresses dissent and has over 700 political prisoners behind bars
Banned independent media — the formal media sector is owned and controlled by the state
Out of oil and has blackouts lasting 20 to 22 hours a day
Big stakes🚨: Shan Wu tonight on the dangers of grabbing yet another head of state.
Trump’s Ironclad on the GOP‼️
👀Things have never been better for Trump as a Republican and worse for him as a president.
💪He’s never been more powerful as a Republican in his own party
🗳️Last night, 37 of Trump’s endorsed candidates won their primaries
Including Ed Gallrein beating Thomas Massie in Kentucky
And Georgia’s Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger lost in Georgia
Speaker Mike Johnson: “The president has the strongest endorsement in the history of politics”
🗣️Today, he issued a new threat to Congressman Brian Fitzpatrick, R-Pa.
Trump: “He likes voting against Trump. You know what happens with that. It doesn’t work out well.”
Reality🤷: Trump can still jump-start or kill anyone’s political career with a click of a button
😬Yet things have never been worse for him politically as a president.
Look back🔙: Trump can rally enough of his base to choose his preferred candidate in the primaries but only to watch them lose later on — which is exactly what happened in 2022.
🗣️Trump endorsed Texas’ deeply flawed attorney general, Ken Paxton
👀This might just give Texas Democrats their chance to win a Senate seat
Or it’s just going to cost Republicans millions that would have been better spent elsewhere…
Again‼️: Trump’s troubles must always be viewed relative to his enemies
👀Democrats can still screw this up — look at Michigan
The leading Democrat candidate is Hamas-adjacent Abdul El-Sayed
And normie Republican, Mike Rogers, is beating every one of the Democrats
Tonight📺: Christina Pascucci, Charlie Dent and Tiffany Smiley