Alert🚨: I’ll join Mark Halperin and the 2Way trio for a Sunday night Morning Meeting tonight at 7 p.m ET, and then I’ll join NewsNation Prime for our special coverage
Tuesday, we start at 7 p.m ET with many pots of coffee and lots of candy!
How to watch📺: Data is everything on election night — but how you interpret that data is key –
Chuck Todd is up with a very good guide on what the early data means
If you prefer to listen rather than read your election guide — Pod Save America “Trump Puts the Mid in Midterms” at 1:01:20 – click here to listen
Editor’s note✏️: I have had a lot of conversations over the weekend with sources, friends, friends who are sources, smart people, dumb people, Rachel and my dog. Below is a compilation of the best thoughts.
BREAKING 🚨: Hayley Stevens endorses Mike Rogers — watch her video
My favorite take: “Hurt people, hurt people”
It’s amazing to watch all the Democrats who talked lovingly about putting “country over party” now trash Haley Stevens.
Vibes👀: Democrats win the vibes right now — is that confirmation bias because of the polls(?)
News cycle — momentum is everything in campaigns
Think about all the stories dominating the news cycle right now:
Expectations are EVERYTHING‼️: Democrats set the tone early. Now anything less than a blowout — including the likes of Iowa, Kansas and South Carolina — Republicans can spin they actually “won”.
Reality✔️: IF (and it’s a big if) Democrats take the Senate,
Question — for people like Nate Silver, who has consistently and wildly under estimated Republican turnout since 2016, why keep putting out predictions that are on the far end of Democratic Christmas wishes?
For Wednesday morning —
Deciding factor☑️: Is Trump on the ballot or not
Margins: If Republicans keep the Senate and declare victory, look at the margins in Iowa, Kansas, Texas and South Carolina — these are deep-red states. Small margins should be a RED (pun intended) flag for Republicans about Americans’ priorities and their dissatisfaction with the current direction of the country.
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I agree with you Leland, because I believe that history is going against President Trump, and I’m a realist, and unfortunately, the republicans will probably lose the House a.k.a. Congress, but I’m cautiously optimistic that the republicans have a better chance of keeping the Senate. The 2026 midterms are the most high- stakes midterms of our lifetime. This is about preserving the U.S.A., respecting our founding fathers, and preserving our constitutional republic for future generations. My hero of the founding fathers is Thomas Jefferson. It should be interesting. Dawn Marie
I do my travelling (by car from Illinois) in the Fall. I stay with friends most of the trip, with a few hotels along the way.
Consider the states of Michigan, Ohio, (West Virginia, Kentucky), Georgia, and Florida. I put West Virginia and Kentucky in parenthesis since the friends I stayed with and their friends are partisan voters.
For the other four states, I found something interesting. While the sampling is small (56 people altogether), 54 of the 56 are doing this:
"I'm a Party A person, but I'm registered as a Party B person. We get to vote in the Party B primary, where we vote for who we DON'T want to win in the general election, and we've had success. Then we vote for Party A in the general election."
I was 54 for 56 in finding this out in potentially swing states. I honestly wonder what impact that has on polls...especially if they ask what party you are registered for...and it LOOKS like they're switching parties in the general election.
Yet another curveball in the reliability of polls?