Iran in the Driver Seat 🚘

President Trump gives Iran control of the war

Brightspot SF✈️: We are in San Francisco today ahead of the California governor’s debate tomorrow night.

• It’s working‼️: San Francisco’s mayor cut a deal with President Trump last year

  • 🗣️The mayor asked Trump to “give him a chance to see if he can turn it around”

    • And major tech CEOs like Jensen Huan and Marc Benioff in Silicon Valley stepped in, saying, “The future of San Francisco is great”

  • Then Trump said he wouldn’t send ICE in

  • 👀Is that the bipartisanship everyone wants?

• Watch📺: I am hosting the debate pregame tomorrow night — it airs on NewsNation at 10 p.m. ET, and Katie Pavlich will do the postgame.

Don’t mess up‼️: Right now, two Republicans are leading the polls in a state that’s D+20 — but the challenge California Republicans will face is voter turnout

• Steve Hilton (R): 17%

• Chad Bianco (R): 14%

• Tom Steyer (D): 14%

• Xavier Becerra (D): 10%

• Katie Porter (D): 10%

• Matt Mahan (D): 5%

• Undecided(?)

• 👀They have to get people to turn out to vote — but how do you do that when Trump’s approval rating in the state is 29%?

• What I’m thinking💭: If things are as bad in California as Republicans tell you they are, then shouldn’t Republicans be farther ahead in the polls?

• Tonight📺: Chairwoman of the California Republican Party Corrin Rankin and Democratic candidate for Congress Marie Hurabiell.

Thinking in the rain🌧️: I went for a burger today at Gott’s in San Fran’s Ferry Building — and ended up outside in a monsoon.

• 🚨The fire alarm went off as I finished my fries.

• 🗣️The staff ushered us outside — past the covered patios, explaining we couldn’t stand under the roof in case the “doors explode.”

• 🤦California won’t turn child molesters over to ICE or arrest drug dealers, but God forbid you stand next to the doors during a (false) fire alarm.

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What’s Happening and Why

Disclaimer⚠️: Right now, I can tell you what’s happening and why but not how it will end up.

• In fairness, I could in good conscience write this with a conventional wisdom narrative that Trump is screwing everything up or that he is an absolute genius. We don’t know.

🗣️Trump cited a fractured Iranian government as his reason for unilaterally extending the ceasefire with Iran — it is perplexing, as this appears to put Iran in control.

• Look back🔙: Remember last night — every other news channel talked about Vice President JD Vance leaving for peace talks in the morning

  • We told you Trump was at the White House deciding if Vance would go or not

• Best case👍: The blockade is already creating infighting within the Iranian regime — as we predicted.

  • 🤷Might as well let them fight amongst themselves, and perhaps Israel can help a little on the ground.

• Worst case👎: Trump is paralyzed and stuck between bad options.

  • 📺This “Daily Show” skit is true — watch

    • “It’s a cycle of demands and threats and premature declarations of victory that allows the negotiator enough wiggle room to at almost any point claim that they’ve achieved exactly what they set out to do…”

Danger⚠️: Trump unilaterally gave up the momentum that came from America’s military successes — now, regardless of what happens, he must regain that.

• Plus➕: Trump appears to be waiting on the Iranians’ proposal rather than enforcing his deadline

• Meantime🗣️: The Iranians keep threatening the United States and our allies

• Be fair⚖️: This might work out strategically, but it’s a bad look.

  • We don’t know the role China is playing as it demands the opening of the strait.

Your view🫵: A number of you wrote and tweeted that I didn’t understand Trump’s genius in dealing with Iran.

• Same standard‼️: We don’t pick a side — we have a standard.

  • I used it when telling you the attacks on Iran were a good thing

  • I used it during the tariff fight when I pointed out the experts were wrong

  • I used it when I told you on Day 2 of the war that everything would come down to the Strait of Hormuz

  • I am using that standard now — Trump is over the war

    • 👀He is stuck politically and is looking for an easy way out

    • ‼️That is bad for America.

Must read📰: The Wall Street Journal headlines, “The Iranians Take Trump for a Sucker,” writing:

• ✏️“How many times do they expect him to play this game before they reopen the Strait of Hormuz?”

• Essential question❓: How many times will Trump pay for the same piece of real estate?

Only chance‼️: Trump must continue to strangle the Iranian regime’s flow of money, and the leadership must believe he will restart the war and then finish it.

• That can’t come through angry tweets

Unquestionable truth: The world is a better place when America is feared and respected — you can decide how the past 48 hours went.

Tonight📺: Retired Vice Admiral John W. “Fozzie” Miller and Joel Rubin

• PS: The best thing Trump has going for him domestically is a Democratic Party that appears anti-American.

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  • 🐖In order to sell in California, farmers across the country need to refit their facilities

    • 💸This is expensive, millions of dollars per farm

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  • ‼️Action Item: Pass the Farm Bill. Bring down costs. Don’t let California impose higher food prices on everyone.

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Tucker-omics

‼️Trump faces not only a crisis abroad but a crisis at home, which is this: His biggest supporters are leaving him. Tucker Carlson apologized to his viewers and listeners for endorsing Trump, and I know why: Relevance and money

• 🎤Carlson: “I do think it’s like a moment to wrestle with our own consciences. You know, we’ll be tormented by it for a long time. I will be, and I want to say I’m sorry for misleading people.”

• 🍌Let’s start with the indisputable fact that Tucker Carlson has the moral courage of a banana

  • 🤷People (other than disgruntled nicotine addicts) are watching him and talking about it — it feeds his ego and, by extension, his bank account.

  • 👎He is not leading his followers — he is reinforcing a distilled version of their disillusionment.

    • ❓If Trump doing what he said he would do does not make them happy — what will?

  • ‼️And he isn’t alone — Megyn Kelly, Alex Jones, Joe Rogan, Candace Owens etc. are moving away from Trump

• Personal knowledge☝️: Tucker and I used to be friendly, and I once asked him why he left magazine writing, which he was very good at, for TV — money, he explained.

  • 💰Nevermind he comes from a very wealthy family

  • 🤦Carlson needs to be relevant and naughty and talked about more than he needs oxygen — it explains everything he does.

    • Full Disclosure🤷: Tucker could easily change. I am just angry because he once got me fired — read his texts — you can decide for yourself

What I am thinking💭: All of the above “independent” commentators make money from views, clicks, streams. sponsors, etc. — they wouldn’t abandon Trump if their audience hadn’t already left him.

• How it works‼️: The rage bait commentators, like Tucker on the Right and Hasan Piker on the Left, don’t set the tone or report news; they reinforce, distill and amplify the emotions and opinions of their fans.

• Be smart🤓: The commentators leaving Trump are a lagging indicator of Trump’s support — they are reinforcing a distilled version of their disillusionment to angry Trump supporters

Watch tonight📺: Chris Cillizza and Caroline Sunshine on Trump’s legacy

• Plus➕: NewsNation’s Kellie Meyer at the White House.

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Both Sides Failing Us👎

Founders warning⚠️: “War Notes” is unapologetically pro-America; we believe deeply in the genius of the founders

• 📃The founders crafted the Constitution and Bill of Rights to protect against the tyranny of the majority

• Danger🚨: Virginia redrawing its congressional districts only increases that risk

  • ‼️The more gerrymandered congressional districts get, the more partisan candidates become

  • ‼️The more partisan candidates become, the greater the chance of a small majority enacting its party’s most extreme policies.

Editor’s note✏️: Because of our deadlines, we are writing “War Notes” before the polls close in Virginia at 7 p.m. ET.

• Look back🔙: Trump and Republicans decided to stack the midterm deck by redrawing congressional districts in between censuses — basically creating more solidly red House seats.

  • ⛓️It started in Texas, but that set off a chain reaction: California, then Utah and today, Virginia.

• ✏️This redrawing could result in Democrats gaining four seats in the House.

  • The plan divides the deep-blue districts in the suburbs of D.C. and around Richmond and adds a new district near the Blue Ridge Mountains, connecting liberal cities.

• Look back🔙: When Texas was redistricting, it was a threat to democracy.

  • 🎤Former U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder in 2025: “The nature of the threat that has been put upon the country through what they’re trying to do in Texas has really increased the danger to our democracy … This is an authoritarian move by the White House to try to make sure they can rig the midterm elections in 2026. A Democratic response that is responsible, that is responsive, and that is temporary is appropriate.”

  • 🤦But when Democrats do it, it’s up to the voters

    • 🎤Hakeem Jeffries on Monday: “We believe that it’s the voters of Virginia and the people of this country who should decide which party is in the majority in the aftermath of the midterm elections. Not Donald Trump and his extreme MAGA sycophants and state legislative bodies across the country, who were ordered by Donald Trump to gerrymander the national congressional map as part of the effort to rig the midterm elections.”

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The California Armageddon🚨

‼️The potential California armageddon for Democrats comes from the reflexive nature of the Democratic Party to be against everything Trump is for.

• ✏️Armageddon is the word of The Atlantic’s Mark Leibovich

• 🤦If Trump is for deporting people, then Democrats are for ending ICE.

  • 🗣️That’s not just me saying it; it’s California gubernatorial candidate Tom Steyer

    • 🎤Steyer: “I’m very straightforward about this: ICE should be abolished. You really can’t reform an organization which is absolutely wrong and criminal from top to bottom.”

  • Reality🤷: Trump won by around 2.3 million votes in 2024, and the majority of Americans don’t want to lock up ICE.

• Problem🚨: Saying stuff like this puts Democrats very far away from people in the middle, who are actually going to decide these elections.

  • 🤷If you want to win some of these Senate seats, the residency or governorship — telling them the guy they voted for sucks may not be the best way to get their vote.

Watch tonight📺: Former California Democratic Senator Barbara Boxer on what it takes to win a California election.