How to WIN in Iran
Trump’s rhetoric makes Netanyahu look like a humanitarian.
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From yesterday◀️: We forgot to include a link to our obituary for Jake Tapper’s book club —
😆Perhaps we will have to update it depending on how his new career as a graphic designer goes for merchandise to the White House correspondents’ dinner
Snarky police🚓: The merch experiment is just an extension of the book club — people so out of touch with America and believing their own press releases.
What really matters‼️: The strikes earlier today on Kharg Island suggest President Trump might understand the regime’s Achilles’ heel better than his rhetoric suggests
🛢️Holding the regime’s oil infrastructure hostage rather than destroying it is the only real pressure point.
Zoom out🌍: What Trump does is far more important than what he says.
🗣️Trump threatened power plants and bridges that the regime doesn’t care about.
💣He bombed the one thing they do care about.
Deadlines📅: The Pakistani prime minister’s two-week proposal is laughable on its face — but Trump loves nothing more than being gracious to other world leaders and the excitement of a NEW deadline.
Worst of all‼️: Two weeks from now is two weeks closer to the midterms — and only increases Trump’s vulnerability on gas prices.
🎤Earlier, Trump said, “A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again”— is anything short of that backing down?
📈The markets turned positive in the last hour of trading — they are betting on Trump’s unwillingness to pull the trigger.
Remember💭: The longer Iran’s regime holds on, the stronger they get.
Biggest problem🚨: Trump is in search of a deal that doesn’t exist, and the Iranians in their current form will make that clear.
Experiment🔬: Sitting with a blank piece of paper, there is no deal one can dream up that meets three basic requirements:
Trump can sell as a legitimate long-term solution and win
The Israelis will agree to
Iran will live by
Flip side ⤵️: If the Strait of Hormuz “opens” as the Pakistanis suggest, it might be harder to close a second time — that’s speculation but could allow for aggressive mine clearing, etc.
Editor’s note✏️: War Notes publishes before the 8 p.m deadline tonight, so we don’t know what will happen.
But‼️: Trump loves nothing more than holding out hope there will be a deal and the tension of yet another deadline.
Missing the Moment to WIN‼️
🚨Regardless of what happens tonight, Trump’s rhetoric and decision matrix show a huge blind spot.
Trump is making Benjamin Netanyahu look like a humanitarian and a smart man.
🎤Netanhayu today: “This is the central point. These actions, which I approved along with the minister of defense, are not intended to attack the Iranian people. On the contrary, they are intended to weaken and crush the terrorist regime that has oppressed them for 47 years.”
🎤Trump today: “A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don’t want that to happen, but it probably will. However, now that we have Complete and Total Regime Change, where different, smarter, and less radicalized minds prevail, maybe something revolutionarily wonderful can happen, WHO KNOWS? We will find out tonight, one of the most important moments in the long and complex history of the World. 47 years of extortion, corruption, and death, will finally end. God Bless the Great People of Iran!”
Look back🔙: Even in the most heated moments, Israel goes out of its way to make a distinction between Hamas and civilians in Gaza.
👀Much of their intel on Hamas comes from civilians in Gaza.
👀Much of their intel on Iran comes from civilians in Iran.
‼️The Iranian regime is just a big Hamas.
Hamas builds its headquarters in hospitals — the Iranians are urging young citizens to form human chains around power plants and bridges.
💣Israel turned Gaza into a giant pile of rubble — Hamas is still there.
That’s the lesson — if Trump wants to win in Iran and not get held hostage by gas prices, he needs the Iranians people
Ground truth‼️: The only way to beat Iran is from within — weakening the regime and promising the Iranian people a better future.
🗣️Netanyahu is doing that with incredible message discipline.
He did that a few weeks ago, promising Israeli air support for protests — Trump remained silent.
What changed👀: At the start of the war, Trump talked about protecting the Iranian people and giving them the signal to begin an uprising … now silence.
📰If you read one thing — Jonathan Swann and Maggie Haberman write that Netanyahu convinced Trump to join him in Iran strikes by promising an internal rebellion and quick victory
🤷Will Trump throw Netanyahu overboard?
5D chess♟️: One could write a script where Trump is going maximalist on threats to civilian populations, and the next two weeks, he strangles the regime’s financial lifeline.
✂️Cutting off oil revenues chokes the regime of the money it uses to stay in power.
🤷That could be what’s happening, but I am not optimistic.
Watch tonight📺: Erick Erickson and Iranian exile Dr. Kian Tajbakhsh on whether Trump is missing the moment to actually WIN in Iran.
PLUS ➕: Retired Vice Admiral John W. “Fozzie” Miller on what we should be hitting to pave the way for a revolution.
Example: Israelis bombed bridges to isolate Tehran so the regime couldn’t move forces around the country to put down an uprising.
End of NATO (?) ⚠️
👀The loudest supporters of NATO should be the most angry NATO isn’t helping America in its war effort with Trump.
😠They should be livid at the NATO countries actively undermining the war effort
Spain blocks its Naval Station Rota and Morón Air Base
Italy blocked its Sigonella Air Base
Austria closed its airspace to U.S. military aircrafts
France closed its airspace
Switzerland closed its airspace
🤦But most are not because that would ally them with Trump.
🤷The war in Iran may not be the end of NATO in name, but when you have NATO allies not allowing the U.S. to use their bases and airspace, what is the point of it?
My take‼️: Europe is giving President Putin this gift because they don’t want to anger its Muslim populations
Look back🔙: Last week, we told you about Muslims chasing police out of their neighborhood in France.
😶Yet the people who should be most mad about this are the ones who support NATO and Ukraine the most, yet they are totally silent.
🤦NATO would barely have a budget if it weren’t for us.
💰The U.S. contributed $845 billion in 2025
Other NATO members gave $559 billion.
Reality check✅: The Brits (without nuclear weapons) couldn’t defend themselves against an ROTC class.
The United Kingdom has 227 tanks compared to the U.S having 4,640
They have 38,000 military vehicles — we have 392,000
They have only 185,000 active duty personnel — we have 1.3 million.
Flip side ⤵️: We have a bunch of liberal leaders saying NATO is the leadership here — then go lead it on your own.
📰The Wall Street Journal came out with an op-ed headlined “NATO Allies Are Quietly Helping the U.S. in Iran,” writing:
✏️“Allies should resist tit-for-tat rhetoric and focus on examples of working together. This is the backdrop to NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte’s trip to Washington this week. The core message should be simple: Europe...is part of the machinery of American power projection, hosting roughly 80,000 U.S. troops and some 40 bases that both deter enemies and support operations.”
Excuse me🤦: Allowing some overflights isn’t “helping,” and why are you “quietly” helping when America is trying to free the world of a brutal Islamic dictatorship?
What I am hearing🎧: MAGA says the NATO betrayal is proof “we need” Greenland
Watch tonight 📺: Former Supreme Allied Commander Retired Gen. Philip Breedlove joins us tonight on whether NATO can save itself.
Plus ➕: NewsNation’s Kellie Meyer from the White House on what Trump’s message will be tomorrow for the NATO secretary-general.
25th Amendment and Vance
📱As Erick Erickson pointed out, the same people who decided Trump was in the hospital this weekend are now telling us he is going to use nuclear weapons — thus we need to invoke the 25th Amendment
🎤Rep. Ro Khanna: “We need to invoke the 25th Amendment and remove Trump. Threatening war crimes is a blatant violation of our constitution and the Geneva Conventions.”
🎤Rep. Robert Garcia: “Donald Trump has lost his mind and his threats to wipe out the Iranian people should be taken seriously. He’s out of control and his cabinet and those around him must be loyal to the constitution and invoke the 25th amendment. He must be removed.”
🎤Rep. Ilhan Omar: “This is not ok. Invoke the 25th amendment. Impeach. Remove. This unhinged lunatic must be removed from office.”
Some advice‼️: I think they need to re-read the 25th Amendment
25th Amendment: “In case of the removal of the President from office or of his death or resignation, the Vice President shall become President.”
🤦Invoking the 25th Amendment means Vice President JD Vance would become president, whom they also hate
Ro Khanna just last year compared Vance to Stalin
🎤Khanna: “Vance…has not only declared war on the courts, but on the universities. And it is no accident. As Stephen Kotkin observed in his study of Stalin, strongmen do not fear recessions or even failed wars as much as they fear the university.”
🗣️Robert Garcia called Vance “an extremist with views that are completely outside the mainstream”
🗣️And Ilhan Omar said America deserves better than “Vance’s hateful, divisive politics”
Follow the money 💸: This is about getting fundraising clips and cable news hits!
Make it make sense🤦: The same people who tell us Trump is a threat to democracy claim the only way to defend democracy is to overturn the will of the people.
‼️You can’t hate Washington enough.
White Knight ⛑️
‼️Virginia Governor Abigail Spanberger was the Democrats’ answer — and we were told “just look, this is how moderate Democrats are going to win across the county”
Fast forward⏩: She is now the least popular Virginia governor in the 21st century.
👍47% approve
👎46% of voters disapprove, according to a new Washington Post poll.
Wow😱: Her support dropped by double digits.
Why?🏃: As soon as she got elected, she gave up on affordability and ran towards progressive talking points like sanctuary cities, abortion, tax hikes, etc.
Raise taxes
Push to redistrict
Advance amendments
Abortion rights
Same sex marriage
Voting rights for felons
Advance to support equity & inclusion
Push to eliminate mandatory minimums for some violent crimes
Ban gas-powered leaf blowers
Rename Columbus Day
Yikes😬: Democrats are more unpopular than Republicans — and prices keep going higher.
Axios says grocery prices continue to accelerate because of the war.
Moody’s says that even if the war ended today, prices would stay high through the election.
What I am thinking💭: Republicans are the incumbents by definition; voting them out is good for Democrats.
Watch tonight📺: Yemisi Egbewole and Mick Mulvaney on why the election might be decided by the following question:
Who do you dislike the least?