Elephant on the Stage 🐘

All roads lead to the White House, and the White House is consumed with Iran right now.

Apr 22, 2026

Greetings from California👋: I am finishing “War Notes” while eating a Double-Double Animal Style from In-N-Out — there are many things wrong with California, but an In-N-Out burger is EVERYTHING that is right with America!

Bright spot🧨: It appears the San Francisco mayor is keeping his deal with Trump and cleaning up the city — it’s remarkable.

Game plan📺: Tonight, NewsNation and Nexstar will host the first California governor’s debate.

We have the pregame starting at 9 p.m ET.
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Most Important Man In or Out of the Room

‼️The most important person tonight in the debate is not on the stage — he’s 3,000 miles away at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.

Every Democrat in the race is running against Trump
Every Republican must answer for him
- Like it or not🤷: This is a preview for the midterms
Ground truth🤦: Objectively, things in California are bad: Taxes are high, industry tech is leaving, crime is a mess, same with immigration, drugs are out of control — but every voter I talked to hates Trump more
- ‼️That’s a problem for Republicans beyond California.
The war🛣️: All roads lead to the White House, and right now, the White House is consumed with Iran.
- Thumb in eye👁️: Trump unilaterally extended the ceasefire with no set deadline, and the Iranians used that time to fire on U.S.-linked ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
  - Iranians will see the nonresponse as weakness, and it will empower the IRGC and hardline parts of the Iranian government.
- Make it stop🛑: Trump clearly wants the war over — he just can’t figure out how to do it.
Time doesn’t stop⏱️: Tonight’s debate highlights Trump’s time problem
- Double whammy😬: The Iran war both distracts him and causes him domestic economic problems
Look back🔙: Last April, Bill O’Reilly predicted Trump had one year — April 1, 2026 — to get things turned around.
Watch tonight📺: Bill O’Reilly on whether Trump can still salvage things before the midterms.
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The Real Threat to Democracy🚨

🤦California Governor and poster child for gerrymandering Gavin Newsom is already popping champagne over last night’s Virginia redistricting vote — boasting Democrats are taking back Congress and crushing Trump’s agenda.

🎤Newsom: “We are winning all across the United States in state houses, in courthouses, and now in the court of public opinion. But what is at stake is putting a stake in the heart of the Trump administration by taking back the House of Representatives and taking it back to the United States Senate.”

Reality☑️: The existential threat to democracy isn’t Donald Trump; it’s redistricting.

How it works✏️: District lines are drawn strategically around groups of people that reliably vote for one party and lump the people who vote for the other party into fewer districts.
- As a result, the party drawing the lines gets a more favorable electorate.
- It’s why America feels so divided — of 435 House seats, more than 400 are safely red or blue. Very few are truly competitive, and even fewer reward lawmakers for reaching across the aisle.
  - Scary🚨: Even if nationally the process ends up with the same number of Republican and Democratic seats, it eliminates swing districts where moderate candidates create a check on their parties’ extreme tendencies.
Zoom out‼️: The more you gerrymander, the more compromise becomes suicidal.
- Gerrymandering makes primaries a purity test.
Danger⚠️: This is bad for America, and it starts undoing the genius of the founders.

Look back🔙: It started with Republicans in Texas, and then Democrats responded in both California and now Virginia — and now it’s going to Florida, where Republicans are saying they’re going to do it even more.

Fair question❓: Are things objectively worse the way the Democrats have it?
- Republicans say Virginia was effectively a 50/50 state — but now it’s a 10-1 Democratic congressional map — did Democrats jump the shark on this in terms of going overboard?
Sound the alarms🚨: Now, Governor Spanberger warns of redistricting plans in all 50 states if Democrats get back the House.
- 🗣️And House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries is already threatening Florida Republicans
  - 🎤Jeffries: “Our message to Florida Republicans is F around and find out.”
Good read📰: The Atlantic headlines, “Trump’s Enormous Gerrymandering Blunder,” writing,
- “The Republican redistricting effort backfires”

History📃: The founders feared the tyranny of the majority, thus they designed America with checks on majority rule: three branches of government.

Bicameral legislature
Executive Branch
Independent judiciary.

Tonight📺: Chris Stirewalt, NewsNation’s political editor and Host of “The Hill Sunday”

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🔬Nowhere in America is a better experiment of progressive ideas than California.

‼️It’s been ruled by a Democratic supermajority for 14 years, and they have tried every progressive policy they could.
- Zero bail for misdemeanors and low-level felonies
- Making shoplifting only a misdemeanor — basically decriminalizing it
- Reduced the prosecution of drug possession
- Raising gas prices with a tax to try to force the switch to electric vehicles
  - 🤦Nowhere do we see that more than the California-Arizona border, where you’ll probably find $7 a gallon in California and $4 a gallon in Arizona.
  - Look back🔙: Democrats said in the early 2020s that high gas prices were a good thing because they encouraged people to move to electric vehicles.
🗣️A big debate tonight will be whether to appeal or suspend the gas tax
- Fact check☑️: Democrats don’t want to talk about this, but the high prices of oil because of Iran affect Arizona just as much as California

🎤While talking to people in California, the No. 1 thing they brought up was how much they hate Donald Trump and need to stand up against him.

Weird🤔: Objectively, a lot of things in California are getting worse — taxes are high, the tech industry is leaving the state — but many still prioritize their hatred of Trump and standing up against him.
- 📈Compared to the U.S. average:
  - Gas is up 44%
  - College prices are up 11%
  - Rent is up 51%
  - Home prices are up 112%
  - Health is up 8%
  - Electricity costs are up 98%

Tonight📺: Former Biden Council of Economic Advisors staffer Ryan Cummings

Plus ➕: NewsNation’s Nancy Loo on the Arizona border talking to voters who cross state lines to save money on gas.

Debate Pregame

‼️The gubernatorial debate you are going to see tonight is unlike any other — Republicans and Democrats on the same stage, facing off to earn the top two spots ahead of the jungle primary.

In a jungle primary, no matter the party, the top two candidates advance
🐘As of yesterday, the top two candidates were Republicans —
- Steve Hilton at 17%
- Chad Bianco at 14%

🛟Eric Swalwell’s implosion two weeks ago gave Democrats a lifeline — and now, the Democrats’ only chance is for Tom Steyer and Xavier Becerra to break out from the field today so they can get into the top two.

💸Steyer has spent around $120 million and hasn’t been able to get anywhere
😬Becerra is a well-known attorney and Biden’s Health and Human Services secretary — and still can’t break 13%
- Scary headline📰: “Will Xavier Becerra’s past come back to haunt him in California governor’s race?”

❓What do Democrats have to do to break through: Fight Trump or fight with each other?

❓What do Republicans have to do to come out on top?

What I’m thinking💭: The only chance for Republicans is if both of them make it into the runoff, otherwise they have no chance — so why would they fight with each other tonight?

Tonight📺: Nicole Nixon, California politics reporter for the Los Angeles Times, and Dr. Markos Kounalakis, visiting fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution.

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