2016 Deja Vu 🌀
If you think thunderstorms are bad, we could be looking at air travel armageddon
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Today we did our first 12:30 video — my readout from our morning editorial call
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Hollywood’s Mayor’s Race🎞️: In one week, we’ll know if the buzz about former reality TV star Spencer Pratt is real or just a bunch of Twitter buzz.
📊Recent polling shows Pratt trailing just behind current Mayor Karen Bass but rising
Note: The top two candidates will go into a runoff if no candidate receives more than 50% of the vote next Tuesday
💰Pratt has outraised every other candidate in the race — raising about $2.72 million in the last month.
Good read📰: The Free Press “Caitlin Flanagan: Pratt Daddy’s Revenge” writing:
“... what does Bass have to show for herself? Almost nothing. This is the appeal of Pratt Daddy: He knows she’s screwed up the city, and he offers a set of simple recommendations to heal it.”
Tonight📺: Our friend and former California resident Jillian Michaels on what the ground truth is in California
Have you heard‼️: CNN just spent more time on Joe Biden’s health than they did during his time as president
What happened😟: Jill Biden worried during the debate two years ago that he was having a stroke
What I am thinking💭: Gee, Mrs. Biden, that was the first time you thought something was wrong
Why it matters❗: Trump turns 80 next month and went to Walter Reed this week — he might be having big health problems according to the experts at MS NOW
What I am thinking💭: The health of the president is a topic of vital national importance … too bad we can’t trust the media to tell the truth about it
Nothing Else Matters 💸
🗣️Today, Donald Trump held a Cabinet meeting to tell us things are going great — for many Americans, that is like when Joe Biden said the border is secure.
Stop🛑: Read that sentence again
Be fair💰: For some Americans, things have never been better
📈Their stocks keep going up
🏢Their kids have good jobs with nice bonuses
🤷That’s much of Trump’s Cabinet
Yikes😬: The rest of America feels poorer every day, and there are far more of them than those with enough money; it doesn’t matter.
Wake up‼️: Our buddy Steve Cortes told us last week that many Americans are sick of hearing about how great the stock market is because it only reminds them they are left behind.
Look back🔙: In 2016, Trump won by taking an “extreme” position on immigration — he promised to build a wall.
Immigration served as a proxy for so much
Look forward🔜: Affordability, economic inequality, being left behind and screwed over will be the immigration issue of 2026 and 2028.
Prediction👀: The aggressive populist Left lane is a path to the White House
Losing the signal🤦: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and other Democrats confuse that with permission to embrace radical Islam — watch AOC don a hijab to profess solidarity with the Muslim faith
What I am thinking💭: The irony of “progressive” Democrats championing a religion that brutally subjugates women is pretty rich.
Reality👀: This is how you win elections in America — especially primaries
🤷Building a wall hasn’t solved immigration — taking Jeff Bezos’ yacht won’t solve America’s affordability crisis — but that doesn’t really matter.
Facts☑️: Socialism leads to economic ruin — but there is a reason it keeps coming back.
📺Listen to Larry Kudlow skewer Zohran Mamdami
Mediaite: “‘Stupid Kid’: Fox’s Larry Kudlow calls Mamdani a ‘Throwback to Stalin’”
🤷Kudlow isn’t wrong — but he would be wise to acknowledge why Mamdani got elected — people don’t think America is fair.
Pay attention‼️: People thinking you can’t win by going all the way to one extreme on an issue people care deeply about haven’t learned from history
Watch tonight📺: Mark McKinnon, Mike Nellis and Tiffany Smiley on what a winning message from the populist Left could look like — it’s not AOC.
Asymmetric Warfare‼️
⚠️You think summer thunderstorms are bad for travel? Department of Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin just threatened an air travel armageddon.
🗣️Mullin said the DHS might stop processing international passengers at airports in sanctuary cities
🤔Think about shutting down international flights at:
Seattle, San Francisco, LAX, Chicago, New York, Boston — just to name a few
Timing⌚: It comes just weeks before the World Cup
Zoom out🗺️: The Trump administration is flipping the script on the Left’s asymmetric warfare
Example❗: Democrats’ ICE protests intentionally create flash points and conflict — now the other team is doing the same thing.
Performance art🖼️: Democrats are once again trying to provoke conflict at an ICE facility in New Jersey
📰The New York Times: “The Battle Over Trump’s Immigration Crackdown Comes to a Parking Lot”
Look back🔙: These tactics work — think about when Florida Governor Ron DeSantis flew migrants to Martha’s Vineyard.
What I am thinking💭: This is about process — Trump is a genius at pushing his opponents to negative situations.
Watch tonight📺: Chris Cillizza and Berit Berger on the politics and law of Republicans playing the Democrats’ game.
Flipping the Script?🔄
📺I looked up at my TV to see President Trump had “flipped the script” on Iran’s stalling tactics — at least that is what Fox News was reporting
What happened❗: He said he was in no rush for a deal and didn’t care about Iran’s effect on the midterms.
Iran is “negotiating on fumes,” he told the Cabinet.
Look back🔙: This was the same guy doing negotiation play by play on Saturday — the deal is “95% done” he said.
Reality🤷: President Trump has no good options in Iran —
❗Restarting the war is unpopular and far from a guarantee
❗Waiting Iran out means the unpopular story stays in the news
Look back🔙: There was a newsletter that told you stopping the war was a mistake, both politically for Trump and more importantly for America.
Problems🚨: You can’t trust the Iranians even to be honest negotiators.
Strategy📃: Iranians say one thing, then take it back. Leak something else and then act like it didn’t happen.
🏤It’s like going to buy a Persian rug
💵You go to a massive Persian rug store sale.
You pay $2,500 for the rug that is 90% off — a GREAT deal
You tell your wife you bought a rug
She buys furniture
Then the rug store calls and says the delivery costs $35,000
Watch tonight📺: Jack Posobiec and Richard Goldberg on what will get Iran to stop playing games — plus why it seems Trump keeps falling for their empty promises.
Hey Leland so happy you’re on Substack with War Notes! ☺️🫶
Cillizza adds good energy to the program